C/2013 V5 (Oukaimeden) in disintegration risk

Comet C/2013 V5 (Oukaimeden) belongs to group of dynamically new comets as its original 1/a was calculated by MPC to 0.00001097 . Absolute magnitude of this comet (8.3 mag) is nearly 2.4 mag above its survival limit (10.7 mag) calculated using formula developed by J. Bortle. However in past time, there were observed many comets which also seems to e on the right side of border and still disintegrated. Bortle calculated this formula specially for comets with small perihelion diistance, however in past year there were disintegrating comets observed in larger heliocentric distance. As the formula seems to works perfectly for comets bellow this line (100% success) there are some comets which exceed their survival limit and still failed to survive its perihelion.

However it is necessary to keep in mind that the Bortle formula was calculated more then 20 years ago and today we are observing many fainter comets which could be in previous years undetectable. Such small comets undergoing large brightnes enhancement during destructive errosion of their nucleus therefore they can seems to be “more active” comets then they really are.

Comet C/2013 V5 (Oukaimeden) is on the plot with companion of another dynamically new comets which failed to survive perihelion passage as C/1999 S4 (LINEAR), C/2010 X1 (Elenin) and C/2002 O4 (Hoenig) and few others. There seems to be real chance that this comet can also fail to survive while it approach on 0.62 AU to Sun.

The light curve analysis and comparison with other comets shows that its activity lies near lever similar to other comets. On plot you can see C/1999 S4, C/2002 O4, C/2010 X1 and in addition C/2012 S1 (ISON) as red dots and lines and C/2003 T4 (LINEAR) which survived its perihelion but probably heavy damaged as green. Actuall data for comet Oukaimeden are black.

Observing of comet Oukaimeden this days is very highly valuable as day to day follow up can help catch the disintegration process it if occurs. The end of comet is usually precceded by fast brightening or outbursts, later followed by unexpected fading and morphology changing in coma – lose of central condensation and cigar shaped inner coma.

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