Comet C/2017 T1 (Heinze) a candidate for disintegrating

Comet C/2017 T1 (Heinze) with original slightly hyperbolic orbit seems to be a dynamically new comet, coming for a first time from Oort cloud. Apparently the comet got a very small absolute brightness, which puts it way bellow Bortle survival limit which is 10.5 mag for perihelion of this comet. However this comet seems to be much fainter to this, my analysis shows that it absolute magnitude could be under 14 mag, which shows to very small, subkilometer sized nucleus. All similar comets from the past disintegrated during its perihelion passage (C/1999 S4, C/2010 X1, C/2012 S1), so it is a good opportunity to study another small comet. Disintegration can tell us more about composition, mass and dust to gas ratio of this comet. I have used new testing version 0.60 of program KOPR for my light curve analysis. Continue reading “Comet C/2017 T1 (Heinze) a candidate for disintegrating”

C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) – time of death

In a previous post I note a high risk of disintegration of this comet, in fact, when the post was made, the nucleus disintegration was already done. The images of Jean-Fran├žois Soulier show a great loss of gas coma between 8. and 9. April. It seems to be the time, when solid nucleus of this comet cease to exist. Continue reading “C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) – time of death”

Comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) prospect

Comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) is definitively a returning, long-periodic comet, actual MPC orbit points to original orbit with period 11603 years and semimajor axis 512 AU. The photometric behavior also points to a returning comet. When it was discovered it shows a very low activity and absolute magnitude below the Bortle survival limit. However it seems that comet was brightening fast and the activity level increased very fast. There was 2 very small outbursts recorded by observers and after second one, comet stopped fast brightening phase and entered calm phase instead. Continue reading “Comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) prospect”

C/2013 V5 (Oukaimeden) in disintegration risk

Comet C/2013 V5 (Oukaimeden) belongs to group of dynamically new comets as its original 1/a was calculated by MPC to 0.00001097 . Absolute magnitude of this comet (8.3 mag) is nearly 2.4 mag above its survival limit (10.7 mag) calculated using formula developed by J. Bortle. However in past time, there were observed many comets which also seems to e on the right side of border and still disintegrated. Bortle calculated this formula specially for comets with small perihelion diistance, however in past year there were disintegrating comets observed in larger heliocentric distance. As the formula seems to works perfectly for comets bellow this line (100% success) there are some comets which exceed their survival limit and still failed to survive its perihelion. Continue reading “C/2013 V5 (Oukaimeden) in disintegration risk”

Comet C/2003 T4 on a disintegration border

During analyzing probability of disintegration for recent comets, I have found an interesting comet on “border-line”. Comet C/2004 T4 (LINEAR) should have only twice mass as previously disintegrated comet ISON. Known non-gravitational forces allows us to calculate limit for mass of this comets and previously disintegrated C/1999 S4 (LINEAR). Known water production rates tell us how much water mass they totally produced. Continue reading “Comet C/2003 T4 on a disintegration border”

Comet C/2012 X1 (LINEAR) anaysis

Comet C/2012 X1 (LINEAR), long-periodic comet with initial period 1740 years, is one of most interesting comet at all. My light curve of this comet require 7 intervals with different photometric parameters.

Originally this comet probably started to brighten before its discovery in distance 5 AU from Sun, first month it seems that its brightness was increasing fast. Shortly after discovery, its brightening continue calmly following usual comet brightening slope. Continue reading “Comet C/2012 X1 (LINEAR) anaysis”

Swan song of comet ISON

By its past evolution I’m actually convinced that what we are now observing in case of comet ISON is its “swan song” last performance at end of its long cometary life. I would like to introduce my opinion about what is happening now with it.

Originally when it was discovered, this comet seems to be active enough near level of many other dynamically new comets and it was hard to imagine that this comet may not survive its perihelion passage. Few months later its activity become to leveling off and in spring of this year, photometric parameters of this comet pointed it near its surviving limit, defined by John Bortle. Based on his study ~70% of comet under this line end their life near perihelion passage. His study was based on 84 comets where 16 totally disintegrated. Reliability of his conclusion could be tested in some past comets, and out of 4 comets bellow this line, all totally disintegrated too. When comet ISON passed 2 AU distance from Sun its activity pointed it still deeper and deeper under this level. Continue reading “Swan song of comet ISON”